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Seminar in CHINA
JULY 2001
The Schiller Institute representatives also met with members at several leading policy institutes, with economists and others, as well as visiting the now-completed experimental High Temperature Reactor project and an institute engaged in studying and developing water projects in China.
The collapse of the U.S.-led bubble economy, and the "trilateral" crises, are widely recognized in China. There is also wide recognition that an entirely new, and just, world economic system MUST be created, although the tendency is to see that as a long-term project.
Those who had strenuously promoted an export-led policy, dependent upon the U.S. market, are now broadly discredited. These "liberals" have not vanished, but they certainly have been silenced by the U.S. collapse, and many are re-thinking the whole policy. Also, the outrageous behavior of George W. Bush (known as "Xiao Bush," or "little Bush") and his administration, has created a shock in China. While China wants improving relations with the U.S., the combination of the Bush government and the economic situation is in the way.
As the head of one institute -- where the Schiller Institute, including Helga Zepp-LaRouche, has made many presentations -- said: "This institute has been publicly predicting that the U.S. bubble would collapse for four years now. We were under a lot of pressure on this, but now, it is clear we were right!"
A number of new books, as well as articles, published in China, reflect the analysis of Lyndon LaRouche and EIR.
China, unlike the rest of Asia, has been able to escape the worst ravages of the IT bubble. The current crash in Taiwan, in its worst crisis in 30 years, is having a big impact. Taiwan's DPP government would have already fallen without U.S. support, but at the same time, it is the growing economic ties between the mainland and Taiwan that is keeping the economy going.
Many economists see the U.S.-led collapse lasting for a long time, at least several years, and are extremely concerned about the fragility of the U.S. dollar. There is a broad tendency to see the crisis as a "cyclical" one, rather than a collapse of the entire system; however, our documentation of the enormity of the world debt, had a big impact.
Chinese policy is to develop its vast internal economy, and expand regional cooperation. This is not easy: China has over 1.25 billion people, and 70% are still in the countryside. Rural sector incomes are stagnating, and it is crucial to solve this problem, through urbanization. The key tasks are to continue the government-investment policy, and expanding growth of production. There is also a changing perception of Russia. The China-Russia treaty was seen as setting a new and right direction to relations. The amount of real work needed to expand economic ties is enormous, but the perception, including among young people, is that Russia is now acting in the international situation.
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